5 May 2025
“For the sake of the Scottish people, and our economy, announce a programme for social care”
Tomorrow the First Minster has an opportunity to do what’s both brave and economically wise, writes Rachel Cackett
Tomorrow – as a late surprise – John Swinney will deliver his last Programme for Government of this parliament. Given none of us was prepared for the sudden appearance of this (and equally none of us is quite clear what has happened to the full scope of the one-year programme announced just last September…), perhaps, in keeping with the surprises, we can hope that some rabbits might get pulled out the hat.
Social care certainly needs one.
The FM has said that “delivery and hope” and “a very radical programme” will be at the heart of his agenda. Well, we could do with some of those too.
But in the press trailing of the announcement, I’ve not seen social care mentioned once. Perhaps this is because we really are going to be the grand end-of-speech unveiling. I hope so, because we have been absolutely clear with the Scottish Government about the state our sector is in, and the consequent risks facing people who are in receipt of support, those who care for them and the wider paid workforce in the sector.
The human and economic costs of getting things wrong in social care over the next 12 months will be profoundly negative. There is only one reasonable option here – invest. Why?
Because you cannot have a vibrant, equitable economy – and end child poverty too – if:
- The NHS, justice and education departments have to step in to waste many millions of taxpayers’ money on wholly avoidable crisis interventions
- People cannot be supported to enter or remain in the job market or stay engaged in education or training
- Family members cannot continue in work because they are the only option to provide essential support
- A major skilled Scottish workforce, made up of over 80% women, are paid too little by government setting baseline wage rates too low
- These same skilled staff lose their jobs because services close, and
- The loss of services and organisations in our sector has a direct knock-on impact on Scottish suppliers – many of them local businesses.
We don’t talk enough about the underpinning of our economy, and aspirations, around the eradication of poverty and inequality by social care and support. But tomorrow we need John Swinney to recognise this direct link. There is real urgency here.
The charities and not-for-profits in CCPS membership, who deliver much of Scotland’s social care, have faced years of underinvestment, rising costs and now huge increases in employer national insurance. Together these are resulting in a systemic destabilisation of the market. In February, we surveyed our members and found that in this financial year:
- 57% are seriously considering handing contracts back to commissioners.
- 55% are seriously considering reducing the amount of support available.
- 92% say lack of eNICs reimbursement will negatively impact their pay award.
- 67% are budgeting on the basis of reaching financial balance through reserves and, of these, 91% will no longer be a going concern within 4 years if they continue to reach financial balance in this way.
(Our survey covered 50 major not-for-profit providers in membership, with £850m income, 28,000 staff and supporting 230,000 people in total).
We now need the Scottish Government to come up with a radical plan of investment to avert a truly terrible position for everyone in Scotland who needs, and delivers, social care and support.
I know that choosing to allocate investment here may leave some risk elsewhere in the overall Scottish budget; but I am also clear that failing to invest here leaves utterly unacceptable levels of risks in the hands of supported people, their loved ones and staff on the frontline. Inaction is a political choice.
So, First Minster, do the brave and economically wise thing: protect some of our poorest and most vulnerable citizens and pull this rabbit out of the hat in tomorrow’s speech.