Political and funding changes suggest uncertain future for providers
Posted on Tuesday 13 July 2010
A survey of CCPS members has shown that voluntary sector social care providers are feeling uncertain and unoptimistic, as changes in political direction at Westminster and impending funding cuts suggest difficult times ahead.
The third iteration of the CCPS Service Provider Optimism Survey [pdf-51.7kB], based on the CBI's business optimism survey, was carried out in May. While the first two iterations of the survey (October 2009 [pdf-48.1kB] and February 2010 [pdf-53.3kB]) established baseline data, results this quarter suggest that providers’ outlooks have been affected by changes to the political and financial context in which they operate.
The survey was carried out at a time of great uncertainty, with a new government elected to Westminster and large cuts in public spending predicted, although not yet quantified. The change in UK government and impending budget cuts have left providers uncertain about the future: around 60% of respondents are less optimistic about the general business prospects for their organisation than they were three months ago.
In a Scottish context, guidance on social care procurement is awaited. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some councils are delaying procurement exercises until the guidance is published, and responses to this survey show that, over the last quarter, providers have indeed experienced less (re-)tendering activity by local authorities. Previous iterations of the survey have shown tendering activity to be the dominant influence on business activity in the social care sector; this reduction in tendering has therefore led to a slightly more stable situation, at least in the short term, for voluntary sector providers: overall business has remained, and is expected to remain, relatively stable for the majority of respondents within the six month period covered by this survey.
Results also re-iterate the findings of the February provider optimism survey that many providers are responding to difficult financial circumstances by re-structuring their organisations, cutting service levels or handing back contracts. Survey results further suggest this has led to an uncertain environment for staff: fluctuation in staffing levels is increasing, including an increase of nearly a third in the percentage of respondents seeing the number of people employed by their organisation go down in the last quarter.
The full report, which contains a full statistical breakdown of responses, plus quotes from respondents, can be downloaded in PDF version from the right hand side of this page. The survey will be repeated in August/September 2010.